By Jacob Sorenson
College football has brought its fair share of confusion weeks one through five. Who can blame it? After recently changing from a dictator-like BCS system there is bound to be a little confusion. Maybe confusion isn’t even the right noun, better said, Chaos. Even with Chaos, this is what we live for. We live for the hype and the uncertainty. The heartbreak also is pretty earth shattering. But what do we understand about college football in weeks 1 through 5? We have Ohio State holding stake at the number one spot in the AP and Coaches polls, but ESPN, they’ve dropped them to 4th. Too similar to a lack luster and under performing Florida State of Ohio State o they truly deserve to be rated the number one team in the nation? Not quite yet. Based on performance we have a few contenders looking to take claim of the number one spot, and ESPN’s power rankings may have the right idea, but based on my analysis, they still are a little off.
Through the first games of the season there have been more than 15 teams enter and fall out of the top 10. There are few teams that have lasted more than 2 weeks in the poll. Not one conference seems to be the outright favorite. Based on wins against Texas Tech, Baylor and TCU both remained 5-0 on the season. TCU appeared to struggle against a high octane offense and Baylor seemed to dismantle them on a neutral field. Both teams’ styles seem to fit the outcomes, but don’t seem to be a good indicator of future outcomes. Alabama, the nation’s favorite hater target, just beat a Georgia team at home in the pouring rain, and not with any difficulty. We see Georgia’s schedule though and do they really deserve to be in the top 10 anyways? Most likely not. Weak group of 5 teams never should provide an inlet for high rank.
Michigan State struggled against a 1-3 Purdue team at home. The former Land shark powerhouse in Ole Miss was picked apart by a now 5-0 Florida gators team, who, with the win, jumped 14 places in the rankings to number 11. And then comes Notre Dame, who almost made a compelling argument coming from behind at Clemson and falling short on a poorly executed two point conversion. The loss only dropped them a few places as Clemson was ranked 12. With the win they enter the top 10 this week however, Do they fit the bill of a true #1?
We cant count out UCLA right? We can, a loss at home to an unranked Arizona state shows they have problems playing on their home field, which would have been essential in their national title bid. Then there is LSU, a team who had built a dynasty under Les miles, and seemed to fall off the tracks over recent years with poor quarterback play and inconsistent defensive play. But wait, there’s one more, the Utah Utes. First time entering the top 10 since their 2009 sugar bowl bid pitted them against a feisty Alabama team. Brian Johnson picked apart the Alabama defense and the Utes became sugar bowl champions and the first Non-BCS era team to win TWO separate BCS bowl games, having won the Sugar bowl and the fiesta bowl.
Do the Utes make a credible case for #1? A dismantling of Oregon in Eugene seemed to be the hype of college football. Receiving ONE first place vote as they made the jump from 21 to 10. After the weekend losses of so many top 10 teams and the BYE week, the Utes became #1 in ESPN power rankings, #5 in the AP polls, and #7 in the coaches poll. We can kind of dissect them as well though. Wins against a 4-1 Michigan team, who shut out opponents in consecutive weeks in BYU and Maryland, but also only played a 2-2 Utah State, and now 1-4 Fresno State. Does the home win against Michigan mean that much? It’s even more in question when you see Oregon struggle at Colorado until the 4th quarter with a back-up quarterback. The win did improve them to 3-2, but they remain out of the top 25. Their first time out since the 2009 season. The Utes tend to struggle later in the year against both the Arizona and California teams as well, who by chance remain on the schedule. Luckily the Utes play many of their biggest challenges at home this year and this weekend they will be pitted against a Cal team that seemed to struggle at home against Washington State.
After all the analyzing and scouting of schedule and opponent rankings, it seems to me that there shouldn’t be a clear number one as of yet. 5 games in we cant really see who is going to show up. Teams struggle every week. I remember seeing the Utes in 2008 however. A game against TCU pitted two top 15 teams competing for their chance to bust the BCS, the Utes defense showed up late and the Utes pulled out a big win by a field goal, 13-10. They fought each and every game and by the end of the year they had proven themselves. Is it premature to have a clear #1 team? In my opinion YES. There are still 7 weeks of college football to skew every single idea that any fanatic has about their competing teams.
This is not to mention Toledo who is ranked for the first time since 2012. The last time they were ranked previous to that was in 2001. Are they to be counted out yet? Not quite, but they do seem do be in a simple conference.
Are the Gators for real? Florida picking apart ole miss at home was no mistake. They are much improved upon previous years, but are we analyzing all of these teams off of the past? I remember looking back to the National Title game between USC and Texas. There was just so much hype between the two, it seemed like both were the outright 1 & 2. They fought hard and the 2006 national title game really seemed to be a battle of 1 &2. Pete Carol was still leading the embattled USC Trojans at the time with Reggie Bush at Running back, and Mack Brown was coaching Vince young and a stout Longhorn Defense. One of the greatest national title games ever was ended 41-38 in a come from behind win by the longhorns.
The reason this year comes to mind is because it is the last time I feel a pre-season number one and number two truly lived up to their rankings and were able to make it to the national title game. USC was the pre-season favorite, and then Texas was able to prove their point in the title game where they dethroned the pre-season favorites. Since then, Therehave been more changes in the top 10 than ever before. The pre-season and mid-season rankings seem almost pointless and its left to the fans to cheer their team on until they inevitably lose.
For the sake of the point however, this years number one may be more clear than we all may think. They reign in the Big 10, they are an underdog of sorts and run a very unique system with very unique statistics. Allowing only 7 points per game and a little under 250 total yards. They also have one of the few remaining undefeated records and don’t really pack on the offensive points either. And the winner is, Northwestern. They seem to be the real number one defensively. That may be until they meet with Michigan, but still, defense wins championships right? Not so fast Lee Corso. The last time northwestern was ranked #1, I don’t recall, but this week pits the #13 Northwestern Wildcats against the #18 Michigan Wolverines. In my opinion the best 2 defenses in the nation, statistically based, battle this weekend. The winner, the REAL #1 team in the nation.
At this point I hope to really aggravate the Utah faithful. Who look to the Streaking Utes as the Outright #1 team in the nation. In a rematch, I take the fiery wolverines over the Utes. The offense has awakened, and the defense, still living up to the hype created years ago when the recruits first were mentioned. Test our theory, defense wins championships. Barring all shockers though, this years national champion should likely come from the Big 10 or the Pac 12, and we can never count out the SEC, surely one team will make the playoff, and unless miracles occur, we could see the Big 12 on a sandbar yet again this year, left out of the playoff because there is no championship game.
College football playoff Top 25 as rated by me: Week 5
1. Northwestern
2. Utah
3. Michigan
4. Alabama
5. USC
6. Baylor
7. Ohio State
8. TCU
9. Florida
10. LSU
11. Michigan State
12. Clemson
13. Notre Dame
14. Ole Miss
15. Texas A&M
16. Oklahoma
17. Stanford
18. Boise State
19. Florida State
20. Duke
21. UCLA
22. Georgia
23. Memphis
24. BYU
25. Temple
Comments
Post a Comment